Ever have one of those days? First, Jack wakes up late and trips over his dog Pirate. Then Dad makes tuna-fish sandwiches for lunch. Yuck. But Jack remembers that Emma's mom usually gives her pastrami—four out of five days last week. Maybe he can trade. What are the chances that she'll have pastrami today? And what's the probability that Jack's day will improve?
Learning to make astute predictions helps children analyze data to make informed decisions.
Illustrated by Marsha Winborn.
Read the story together and ask your child (or students) to predict what they think will happen and why. Ask questions such as: "Do you think Emma will have pastrami for lunch? Why do you think that?" As their understanding of probability grows, ask questions such as: "Why didn't Jack's predictions come true? What question could Jack have asked Emma so that he might have made a better prediction?"
Ask your child (or students) to decide if certain events are likely, possible or unlikely. Suggest events such as: "You will go to bed at 8:30 tonight." "We will all go swimming on Saturday." "No one in your class will be absent tomorrow."
Keep track of local weather reports for one week. Make a list of the predictions and then record the actual weather. Have your child (or class) decide how accurate the weather reports were.